Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the country and caused chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. They authors two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
